GARFIELD-AF Risk Calculator

About the
Risk Calculator
  • It simultaneously provides the risks for up to 24 months of: Mortality Ischaemic Stroke or Systemic Embolism Major Bleeding Incl. Haemorrhagic Stroke
  • It allows clinicians to compare the effects of different anticoagulant treatment decisions – no oral anticoagulation (no OAC), vitamin K antagonist (VKA), non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC) – based on the results from similar patients in the GARFIELD-AF Registry.
  • It uses routinely collected clinical data and includes a total of 16 questions.
  • It has been derived from the GARFIELD-AF population and externally validated.
find out more Want to know more? FAQs

Risk Calculator

Key | Questions contribute to the following risk factors:
Mortality Ischaemic Stroke/Systemic Embolism Major Bleeding incl. Haemorrhagic Stroke
Age at time of diagnosis
Weight at time of diagnosis
Blood Pressure
History of bleeding
History of heart failure or left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <40%
(This is heart failure, or LVEF <40%, or both)
History of stroke
Moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD class III-V)
History of coronary artery disease or peripheral vascular disease
Diabetes (type 1/2)
Current smoker
Current use of antiplatelet (AP) drugs (e.g. aspirin, clopidogrel)
Carotid occlusive disease
Risk Plot over Time

Filter Results By:
Select to change risk plot

Complete all questions and press calculate to reveal results
Mortality Ischaemic Stroke or
Systemic Embolism
Major Bleeding Incl.
Haemorrhagic Stroke
-- -- --
VKA -- -- --
NOAC -- -- --
Select number of days after diagnosis to calculate risk of event
Number of days

If you would like to re-calculate any of the results above, please edit your input data to see how this impacts your results.

Back to Questions     FAQ


We’d greatly appreciate any feedback on your experience using our new risk tool calculator. Click here to complete our concise questionnaire.

iOS and Android

GARFIELD-AF has partnered with QxMD to make this tool freely available to clinicians globally on iOS and Android. Get it here.

Source Equations

Want to view/adapt the source equations for this calculator? Access here.


Click any of the boxes below for more information on how the tool was developed and how to use the risk calculator.

Why would I use it?

• Unlike conventional risk scores, it simultaneously provides the risk of ischaemic stroke, major bleeding as well as mortality.
• Uniquely, the calculator helps clinicians to judge whether the benefits of anticoagulation outweigh the risks in patients with a range of baseline risk factors.
• It includes factors beyond those included in conventional risk scores to improve its predictive power and is based on data from a global community. The calculator uses routinely collected clinical parameters that have been shown to have predictive power for adverse events.
• The GARFIELD-AF risk tool was validated in an external population (ORBIT-AF registry). The model exerted good calibration and discrimination.

How do I use it?

To use the GARFIELD-AF risk tool for any patient with a new diagnosis of AF:
1. Enter the patient data by selecting from the ranges given or by using the yes/no toggle switches. When finished, click "Calculate" to obtain risk of event probabilities.
2. The risk plot allows you to compare the risk of mortality, ischaemic stroke or systemic embolism and major bleeding including haemorrhagic stroke over time. You can filter the results by anticoagulant treatment using the boxes in the upper right corner.
3. The table at the bottom provides the estimated probabilities for three possible treatment decisions: no oral anticoagulation (no OAC), vitamin K antagonist (VKA), or non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC). You may select the estimates to refer to a specific time point after AF diagnosis using the time bar to the right of the table.
4. If you would like to see how a different input impacts your results, just click “Back to Questions”, edit the values you wish to modify and click “Calculate”.

How was the calculator developed?

The risk calculator was derived from GARFIELD-AF, the largest prospective, observational, multicentre global registry of adult patients with newly diagnosed AF. Data were gathered between March 2010 and August 2016 from over 1000 centres in 35 countries. Adult patients who had been recently diagnosed with AF (not related to mechanical valves or severe valve disease, i.e. non-valvular) and had at least one risk factor for stroke were enrolled in the registry. Patients for whom follow-up was not available were excluded.

The work on the calculator was led by the Thrombosis Research Institute (TRI) in London, UK, which sponsors the GARFIELD-AF registry and supported by an unrestricted research grant from Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany, to TRI, which sponsors the GARFIELD-AF registry. Karen Pieper and Saverio Virdone from TRI analysed the GARFIELD-AF database and created the algorithms. Clinical guidance was provided by the GARFIELD-AF Steering Committee, led by Professor Keith Fox, University of Edinburgh, UK.

[1] Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation. Fox KAA, Lucas JE, Pieper KS, et al; GARFIELD-AF Investigators. BMJ Open. 2017 Dec 21;7(12):e017157.

[1] View Journal

Medical Disclaimer: The information on this site is not intended or implied to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. All content, including text, graphics, images and information, contained on or available through this web site is for general information purposes only.

Global status

Read more
Total patients 57,262
Recruitment Recruitment closed
Study end: 2018

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      To find out more about GARFIELD-AF, please contact the Thrombosis Research Institute

      T: 0203 198 9947